PSU Mark
Eberly College of Science Mathematics Department

Meeting Details

For more information about this meeting, contact Andrew Belmonte.

Title:Behavior, Immunity, and Dynamics in Simple Epidemiology Models
Seminar:The Pritchard Lab Seminar
Speaker:Timothy Reluga, Dept of Mathematics, Penn State
Abstract:
In classical SIR models, asymptotic dynamics can easily be summarized in terms of a single global attractor. However, a number of theoretical studies in the last decade have shown that epidemic models can have at least two locally stable solutions for some biologically reasonable ranges of parameters. This bistability may have important repercussions for public health policy and epidemic preparedness because it may lead to rapid and unexpected changes in state. However, our understanding of the mechanisms creating bistability remains fuzzy. One potential cause of bistability is natural variation in resistance level through behavior or acquired immunity. In this talk, I'll discuss some mathematical models of resistance. These models indicate that behavior changes can easily induce bistability through backward bifurcations, but that acquired immunity cannot create backward bifurcations. Immunity appears unlikely to create bistability, but the dynamic consequences remain incompletely understood.

Room Reservation Information

Room Number:MB216
Date:04 / 26 / 2010
Time:02:30pm - 03:30pm