For more information about this meeting, contact Andrew Belmonte.
| Title: | Behavior, Immunity, and Dynamics in Simple Epidemiology Models |
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| Seminar: | The Pritchard Lab Seminar |
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| Speaker: | Timothy Reluga, Dept of Mathematics, Penn State |
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| Abstract: |
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| In classical SIR models, asymptotic dynamics can easily
be summarized in terms of a single global attractor.
However, a number of theoretical studies in the last decade
have shown that epidemic models can have at least two
locally stable solutions for some biologically reasonable
ranges of parameters. This bistability may have important
repercussions for public health policy and epidemic
preparedness because it may lead to rapid and unexpected
changes in state. However, our understanding of the
mechanisms creating bistability remains fuzzy. One
potential cause of bistability is natural variation in
resistance level through behavior or acquired immunity. In
this talk, I'll discuss some mathematical models of
resistance. These models indicate that behavior changes can
easily induce bistability through backward bifurcations, but
that acquired immunity cannot create backward bifurcations.
Immunity appears unlikely to create bistability, but the
dynamic consequences remain incompletely understood. |
Room Reservation Information
| Room Number: | MB216 |
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| Date: | 04 / 26 / 2010 |
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| Time: | 02:30pm - 03:30pm |
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