For more information about this meeting, contact Minxin Chen, Qingtian Zhang.
|Title:||Strain interactions and erratic periodicity of Whooping Cough|
|Seminar:||Mathematical Biology and Physiology Seminar|
|Speaker:||Samit Bhattacharyya, Penn State University|
|Whooping cough has a very unpredictable dynamics with global periodicity 2-5 years. Several studies, in recent years, proposed different hypotheses such as stochasticity in transmission, boosting immunity, vaccination, and demographic factors to explain this erratic periodicity of whooping cough. In this study, we are modelling whooping cough outbreak dynamics as combination of two of its etiological serotypes B. pertussis and B. parapertussis, where these two strains interact with each other by ecological competition, namely temporary removal or quarantine (via age dependent disease severity). We hypothesize that variable dynamics of whooping cough is due to coexistence of multiple attractors emerging from the interaction of these two serotypes. We are developing a stage-structured compartmental model of multi-pathogen system and exploring how the age-specific pattern of quarantine impacts the interaction of two pathogens. We also discuss how vaccination of one strain impacts the dynamics of the other in this framework of age-specific competition.|
Room Reservation Information
|Date:||10 / 31 / 2013|
|Time:||11:00am - 01:00pm|