PSU Mark
Eberly College of Science Mathematics Department

Meeting Details

For more information about this meeting, contact Andrew Belmonte, Hope Shaffer.

Title:The optimal path to epidemic extinction
Seminar:Seminar on Mathematics in the Bio and Geo Sciences
Speaker:Eric Forgoston, Dept of Mathematical Sciences, Montclair State University
The control and eradication, or fade-out, of infectious diseases is an important goal for improving public health. In order to enhance methods of disease control, including vaccination and social group quarantine, one must first determine how the disease spreads dynamically. However, modeling the dynamics of an outbreak includes many complicating features, such as deterministic and stochastic chaotic-like behavior. From a probabilistic viewpoint, these dynamics can change the probability of extinction. In large, finite populations, the extinction of an infectious disease epidemic is a rare event. We will show that the process of extinction proceeds along an optimal path which maximizes the probability of disease fade-out. Moreover, we will show that the optimal path also possesses a maximal sensitivity to initial conditions, which can be quantified by computing finite-time Lyapunov exponents. As a result, the optimal path emerges naturally from the underlying dynamical system and may be constructed explicitly using the finite-time Lyapunov exponents. The theory will be applied to several stochastic epidemiological models.

Room Reservation Information

Room Number:MB106
Date:10 / 19 / 2011
Time:01:00pm - 02:00pm